Equity Research Ranking
for Chinese Security Firms

In an attempt to impartially assess the equity research competencies of Chinese sell-side firms, we have developed a unique ranking method. This method utilizes Adjusted Proportional Mean Absolute Forecast Error (MAFE) to determine the forecast accuracy of firms dealing with stocks listed in Shenzhen or Shanghai. In addition to the Prediction Accuracy Score, we also compute a Prediction Frequency Score to gauge the level of research activity undertaken by these sell-side firms.

Our assessment, based on the annual EPS projections for 2022, covered 78 sell-side firms and 2887 stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen. The top three firms in terms of accuracy were First Shanghai Securities, Gamma Securities, and Donghai Securities. In terms of activity, the most proactive firms in making projections were Tianfeng Securities, Essence Securities, and Everbright Securities.

The updated ranking for 2023 will be available in mid-2024, once all listed companies have published their annual reports. Rankings segmented by sector can be provided upon request.

Sell-side Firms
Sell-side Firms (Chinese)
Accuracy Rank (2022)
Accuracy Score (2022)
Accuracy Rank Change from 2021
Frequency Rank (2022)
Frequency Score (2022)
Frequency Rank Change from 2021
First Shanghai Securities第一上海证券1100up35550.42down4
Gamma Securities嘉谟证券295.37down1610down9
Donghai Securities东海证券394.38New560.26New
CSC Securities (HK)群益证券493.35up11368.66=
Soochow Securities东吴证券592.97up8469.83up3
Ping An Securities平安证券692.17=2320.97down6
BOC International (China)中银证券792.16down31930.25down4
Dongguan Securities东莞证券892.15up11359.72down5
CDB Securities国开证券991.86down4501.01down7
Sinolink Securities国金证券1091.49up71151.63up2
Everbright Securities光大证券1190.69up7370.43up1
Great Wall Glory Securities长城国瑞证券1290.56up27520.7down5
Zheshang Securities浙商证券1389.8up17668.6up6
Kaiyuan Securities开源证券1489.34down5866.91=
Topsperity Securities德邦证券1589.34New3013.79New
DBS Securities (China)星展证券(中国)1689.13New600.02New
Caitong Securities财通证券1788.71up342715.36up6
CMB International Securities招银国际1888.68down16462.29down4
Essence Securities安信证券1988.54up5273.05=
Zhongtai Securities中泰证券2088.39up3568.72down2

Note: The ranking excludes 17 security firms with less than 5 predictions.

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Our Adjusted Proportional MAFE approach has two primary features:

  • It is adjusted for the timing of the predictions. Specifically, we have considered that forecasts generally become more precise when made at a later stage with more data at disposal. Thus, the time factor influencing the accuracy of predictions is eliminated from our computation and ranking.

  • It is proportional as it compares the prediction accuracy of individual sell-side firms with industry averages.

Data sources: EPS projections and actual data from EastMoney accessible at https://www.eastmoney.com/.

Technical notes available upon request. Email: admin@oxbridge-econ.com.