Equity Research Ranking
for Chinese Security Firms
In an attempt to impartially assess the equity research competencies of Chinese sell-side firms, we have developed a unique ranking method. This method utilizes Adjusted Proportional Mean Absolute Forecast Error (MAFE) to determine the forecast accuracy of firms dealing with stocks listed in Shenzhen or Shanghai. In addition to the Prediction Accuracy Score, we also compute a Prediction Frequency Score to gauge the level of research activity undertaken by these sell-side firms.
Our assessment, based on the annual EPS projections for 2023, covered 72 sell-side firms and 3454 stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen. The top three firms in terms of accuracy were China Dragon Securities, Great Wall Glory Securities, and Vanho Securities. In terms of activity, the most proactive firms in making projections were Minsheng Securities, Tianfeng Securities, and Soochow Securities.
The updated ranking for 2024 will be available in mid-2025, once all listed companies have published their annual reports. Rankings segmented by sector can be provided upon request.
Sell-side Firms  | Sell-side Firms (Chinese) | Accuracy Rank (2023) | Accuracy Score (2023)  | Accuracy Rank Change from 2022 | Frequency Rank (2023) | Frequency Score (2023) | Frequency Rank Change from 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianfeng Securities | 天风证券 | 49 | 39.83 |  4 | 2 | 99.03 | 1 |
| Cinda Securities | 信达证券 | 44 | 44.91 | 19 | 10 | 59.88 |  2 |
| Waton Securities International | 华通证券国际 | 45 | 44.18 | 15 | 43 | 1.03 | 14 |
| CDB Securities | 国开证券 | 35 | 48.47 | 26 | 47 | 0.36 | 3 |
| Sinolink Securities | 国金证券 | 24 | 53.89 | 14 | 8 | 74.1 | 3 |
| Kaiyuan Securities | 开源证券 | 39 | 47.16 | 25 | 4 | 83.34 | 4 |
| Central China Securities | 中原证券 | 12 | 61.43 | 24 | 26 | 15.37 | 14 |
| Donghai Securities | 东海证券 | 48 | 40.71 | 45 | 37 | 5.29 | 19 |
| Minsheng Securities | 民生证券 | 30 | 50.42 | 9 | 1 | 100 | 6 |
| Soochow Securities | 东吴证券 | 33 | 49.65 | 28 | 3 | 94.54 | 1 |
| China Fortune Securities | 华鑫证券 | 26 | 53.15 | 12 | 15 | 41.56 | 9 |
| Dongguan Securities | 东莞证券 | 15 | 60.8 | 7 | 30 | 10.83 | 5 |
| CMB International Securities | 招银国际 | 7 | 79.63 | 11 | 39 | 3.32 | 7 |
| Huaan Securities | 华安证券 | 42 | 46.09 | 8 | 14 | 44.73 | = |
| Shanxi Securities | 山西证券 | 20 | 57.93 | 3 | 25 | 20.01 | 4 |
| Chuancai Securities | 川财证券 | 4 | 91.82 | 31 | 40 | 1.78 | 3 |
| Vanho Securities | 万和证券 | 3 | 92.65 | 55 | 48 | 0.33 | 1 |
| China Dragon Securities | 华龙证券 | 1 | 100 | New | 49 | 0.06 | New |
| BOCOM International Securities | 交银国际证券 | 51 | 0 | New | 50 | 0.03 | New |
| Dongxing Securities | 东兴证券 | 31 | 50.13 | 15 | 27 | 14.34 | 1 |
Note: The ranking excludes 18 security firms with less than 5 predictions.
Page 1 of 3
Our Adjusted Proportional MAFE approach has two primary features:
It is adjusted for the timing of the predictions. Specifically, we have considered that forecasts generally become more precise when made at a later stage with more data at disposal. Thus, the time factor influencing the accuracy of predictions is eliminated from our computation and ranking.
It is proportional as it compares the prediction accuracy of individual sell-side firms with industry averages.
Data sources: EPS projections and actual data from EastMoney accessible at https://www.eastmoney.com/.
Technical notes available upon request. Email: admin@oxbridge-econ.com.