Equity Research Ranking
for Chinese Security Firms
In an attempt to impartially assess the equity research competencies of Chinese sell-side firms, we have developed a unique ranking method. This method utilizes Adjusted Proportional Mean Absolute Forecast Error (MAFE) to determine the forecast accuracy of firms dealing with stocks listed in Shenzhen or Shanghai. In addition to the Prediction Accuracy Score, we also compute a Prediction Frequency Score to gauge the level of research activity undertaken by these sell-side firms.
Our assessment, based on the annual EPS projections for 2022, covered 78 sell-side firms and 2887 stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen. The top three firms in terms of accuracy were First Shanghai Securities, Gamma Securities, and Donghai Securities. In terms of activity, the most proactive firms in making projections were Tianfeng Securities, Essence Securities, and Everbright Securities.
The updated ranking for 2023 will be available in mid-2024, once all listed companies have published their annual reports. Rankings segmented by sector can be provided upon request.
Sell-side Firms  | Sell-side Firms (Chinese) | Accuracy Rank (2022) | Accuracy Score (2022)  | Accuracy Rank Change from 2021 | Frequency Rank (2022) | Frequency Score (2022) | Frequency Rank Change from 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Shanghai Securities | 第一上海证券 | 1 | 100 |  35 | 55 | 0.42 |  4 |
| Gamma Securities | 嘉谟证券 | 2 | 95.37 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 9 |
| Donghai Securities | 东海证券 | 3 | 94.38 | New | 56 | 0.26 | New |
| CSC Securities (HK) | 群益证券 | 4 | 93.35 | 11 | 36 | 8.66 | = |
| Soochow Securities | 东吴证券 | 5 | 92.97 | 8 | 4 | 69.83 | 3 |
| Ping An Securities | 平安证券 | 6 | 92.17 | = | 23 | 20.97 | 6 |
| BOC International (China) | 中银证券 | 7 | 92.16 | 3 | 19 | 30.25 | 4 |
| Dongguan Securities | 东莞证券 | 8 | 92.15 | 11 | 35 | 9.72 | 5 |
| CDB Securities | 国开证券 | 9 | 91.86 | 4 | 50 | 1.01 | 7 |
| Sinolink Securities | 国金证券 | 10 | 91.49 | 7 | 11 | 51.63 | 2 |
| Everbright Securities | 光大证券 | 11 | 90.69 | 7 | 3 | 70.43 | 1 |
| Great Wall Glory Securities | 长城国瑞证券 | 12 | 90.56 | 27 | 52 | 0.7 | 5 |
| Zheshang Securities | 浙商证券 | 13 | 89.8 | 17 | 6 | 68.6 | 6 |
| Kaiyuan Securities | 开源证券 | 14 | 89.34 | 5 | 8 | 66.91 | = |
| Topsperity Securities | 德邦证券 | 15 | 89.34 | New | 30 | 13.79 | New |
| DBS Securities (China) | 星展证券（中国） | 16 | 89.13 | New | 60 | 0.02 | New |
| Caitong Securities | 财通证券 | 17 | 88.71 | 34 | 27 | 15.36 | 6 |
| CMB International Securities | 招银国际 | 18 | 88.68 | 16 | 46 | 2.29 | 4 |
| Essence Securities | 安信证券 | 19 | 88.54 | 5 | 2 | 73.05 | = |
| Zhongtai Securities | 中泰证券 | 20 | 88.39 | 3 | 5 | 68.72 | 2 |
Note: The ranking excludes 17 security firms with less than 5 predictions.
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Our Adjusted Proportional MAFE approach has two primary features:
It is adjusted for the timing of the predictions. Specifically, we have considered that forecasts generally become more precise when made at a later stage with more data at disposal. Thus, the time factor influencing the accuracy of predictions is eliminated from our computation and ranking.
It is proportional as it compares the prediction accuracy of individual sell-side firms with industry averages.
Data sources: EPS projections and actual data from EastMoney accessible at https://www.eastmoney.com/.
Technical notes available upon request. Email: admin@oxbridge-econ.com.